According to the latest data from the National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia, as of February 2026, total doubtful and disputed claims—covering both companies and households—stand at 8.5 billion denars.
This marks the lowest level in the past four years and one of the lowest points in the last decade. The last time figures approached this level was in March 2022. The downward trend has been consistent since August 2025, suggesting a sustained improvement rather than a short-term fluctuation.
What is driving the improvement?
Several factors appear to be supporting this movement. Banks are seeing better repayment discipline, with fewer delays from borrowers. At the same time, part of the legacy risk is being addressed through restructuring, write-offs, and asset sales.
New lending also plays a role. In periods when banks are more cautious, loans tend to be directed toward stronger and more stable clients, which naturally improves portfolio quality over time.
The most significant contribution to the overall improvement comes from businesses. As of February 2026, non-performing loans in the corporate segment have dropped to 3.9 billion denars—by far the lowest level in the past ten years. The decline has been continuous since November 2024.
The contrast with previous years is striking. In May 2019, corporate non-performing loans stood at 10.2 billion denars—more than double the current level.
Over the past two years, despite occasional pressures, companies have managed to maintain relatively stable debt servicing. This has allowed the problematic portion of portfolios to gradually shrink.
Households remain stable—but under pressure
The situation among households is less dramatic, but arguably more important when assessing future risk. As of February 2026, doubtful and disputed claims among households amount to 4.6 billion denars. This level has remained largely unchanged since August 2024.
However, the longer-term comparison tells a different story. In September 2019, the same figure was around 2 billion denars—significantly lower than today. This suggests that households are not deteriorating, but they are also not returning quickly to earlier, more comfortable levels of financial stability.
Several factors may explain this plateau:
- higher living costs driven by inflation
- increased borrowing costs during the tightening cycle
- a larger share of consumer loans, which are more sensitive to financial shocks
- Where the next risks could come from
Looking ahead, external developments could play a decisive role. If tensions related to the conflict with Iran escalate, the impact on North Macedonia is likely to come through higher energy prices and renewed inflationary pressure. This would then feed into interest rates and overall borrowing capacity.
Higher energy costs typically translate into more expensive transport and food, increasing the overall cost of living. For households, this could mean additional pressure on budgets. In such a scenario, servicing short-term and higher-cost debt—such as consumer loans, credit card balances, and overdrafts—could become more difficult.
Selective pressure on businesses
The corporate sector, while currently strong, is not immune to external shocks. The first to feel the impact would likely be energy-intensive industries and the transport sector. Export-oriented companies, especially those dependent on European demand, could also face challenges if external conditions weaken.
However, the fact that corporate non-performing loans are currently at historically low levels provides a buffer—at least in the short term.
Two possible scenarios
If the energy shock remains temporary and prices stabilize, the most likely outcome is continued stability.
In that case:
- corporate non-performing loans would remain low, with only minor fluctuations
- household risk would stay elevated but stable, without a rapid decline
However, a less favorable scenario remains possible. If inflation accelerates again and credit conditions tighten, households could face increasing pressure, potentially leading to a rise in non-performing loans. In such conditions, banks are expected to become more cautious in their lending practices.
A positive signal—but not the end of risk
The overall decline in doubtful and disputed claims to multi-year lows is a strong signal of improving credit quality within the banking system. At the same time, it does not mean that risk has disappeared. Rather, it suggests that the system is currently more resilient—but still exposed to both external shocks and internal pressures.
