Three weeks after Slovenians went to the elections, it seems like they have received the answer to the fundamental question which is: Is it likely that the next government will be formed by Janez Janša and his Slovenian Democratic Party (SDP) for the fourth time?
Yesterday, the leader of the Democrats, Anže Logar, announced that he was breaking off coalition negotiations with Robert Golob, the former Prime Minister of the party “Movement for Freedom”, which practically paved the way for a new government led by Janša.
Logar is a former Slovenian Minister of Foreign Affairs in Janša’s government and a long-term member of the SDP which he left two years ago. During the election campaign, he persistently denied the accusations of the left wing that he was “a hidden trump card” of the party, and he explained the breaking off of the negotiations by declaring that “Freedom” had tried to “force him into a coalition agreement” and that the behavior of the party had “crossed the boundaries of normal political dialogue.”
The “Movement for Freedom”, that is, the relative winner of the elections with 29 MPs, said that the voters had witnessed political fraud and that negotiations with the Democrats who won 6 MPs, had never happened.
“We sent invitations and proposals to Anže Logar, but there was no answer. Despite this, they created an impression in the public that negotiations were ongoing. That is not true,” said the party.
A situation that is familiar to Janša
Janša also reacted and compared Golob’s attempt to form a government to the same attempt that the mayor of Ljubljana, Zoran Jankovikj, made, failing to do so in 2011, despite winning the elections. At the end, it was Janša who formed the government.
The ruling “Movement for Freedom” and the opposition SDP got almost the same results in the elections held on March 22nd. The “Movement for Freedom” got 28.62 percent of the vote, while SDP got 27.95 percent, which was only one mandate apart.
The election, which was described as a test of whether liberal pro-European politics can survive or whether Slovenia is beginning to be taken in the right-wing wave that is visible across Europe, resulted in a deadlock.
The campaign was also marked by a scandal involving audio and video recordings showing public officials in controversial conversations, form the “ten percent for the mayor” as a price for building permits, to the transfer of state funds. Golob said that the episode was an operation by the Israeli private intelligence company “Black Cube”, aimed at foreign interference in the elections, while Janša said that it was evidence of corruption by the ruling elite.
Will Janša bring signatures?
Now everything depends on President Natasa Pirc Musar who has been conducting consultations on a candidate for prime minister since Monday, April 20th, with the first round taking place between April 20th and 24th, while the deadline for proposing a prime minister is May 10th.
The president had clear criteria: “Whoever brings me 46 votes will get the mandate,” she said, but at the same time added that she does not want the government to be formed by someone who tried to influence the Slovenian elections with foreign actors because that is a direct allusion of the affair “Black Cube”.
According to the assessment of the analysts from POP TV, there is a probability for Janša to come to the president with 46 signatures of support already at the first meeting.
European circles follow the developments with concern. The speaker of parliament who is considering a referendum on leaving NATO and who would like to go to Moscow, and the government that potentially wants to reconsider European polices, are making a scenario that no one in Brussels wants.
Names for ministerial positions are already circulating
Although Janez Janša, leader of the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS), insists that he is not forming a government, signals from behind the political scenes suggest otherwise. According to a tentative distribution agreement, SDS would take eight ministries, the New Slovenia (NSi) five, and the Democrats three. Informal talks have reportedly already reached the stage of discussing specific names for ministerial posts.
As a candidate for the Ministry of Finance—traditionally allocated to the largest party—Andrej Šircelj is being mentioned, having previously held the position in an earlier Janša government. Zvone Černač could return as minister, possibly in the infrastructure sector, while former Interior Minister Aleš Hojs is now being linked to the environment portfolio. His former post at the Interior Ministry could be taken by Anže Logar, leader of the Democrats, which would align with his anti-corruption agenda.
Logar is reportedly not interested in returning as foreign minister, as frequent official trips abroad could hinder his ability to manage his new party domestically. Instead, Tone Kajzer from SDS could take over at the Foreign Ministry, while Žan Mahnič is said to be a strong candidate for the defense portfolio.
As for NSi, its leader Jernej Vrtovec is being mentioned for either the energy or economy ministry, while Janez Cigler Kralj—who previously failed to become speaker of parliament—could return as minister of labor. Unofficially, Tina Bregant, leader of the Slovenian People’s Party (SLS), is also expected to receive one of the ministerial posts.
Of course, much can still change during the negotiations.
