Europe may not be in the middle of an energy emergency today, but behind the scenes, governments and institutions are increasingly preparing for a scenario that many fear could unfold in the near future.
The global energy system remains highly dependent on a small number of strategic routes and suppliers. One of the most important among them is the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of the world’s oil and gas flows.
Even minor disruptions in such critical locations can have immediate global consequences. Recent geopolitical tensions have once again highlighted how vulnerable supply chains remain.
Why Europe is particularly exposed
Unlike some other major economies, Europe relies heavily on energy imports. Despite efforts to diversify sources after the 2022 energy crisis, the continent still depends on external suppliers for a large share of its oil and gas. This means that any global supply shock — even one occurring far from Europe — can quickly translate into higher fuel prices, increased electricity costs and rising inflation.
For smaller economies in Southeast Europe, the impact is often even more pronounced due to limited domestic energy production. The energy shocks of recent years have already demonstrated how quickly markets can react. Price spikes, supply shortages, and government interventions became common across Europe.
While emergency measures helped stabilize the situation, they also exposed structural weaknesses like overreliance on imports, insufficient storage capacity and slow transition to alternative energy sources
These vulnerabilities have not disappeared — they have only been temporarily managed.
What could trigger the next crisis
Several factors could contribute to a new wave of instability:
- geopolitical tensions in key regions
- disruptions in major shipping routes
- unexpected production cuts
- extreme weather affecting energy infrastructure
Individually, these risks may seem manageable. Combined, however, they could create a scenario similar to — or even more severe than — previous crises.
Governments across Europe are already taking steps to reduce exposure like increasing strategic reserves, investing in renewable energy, expanding LNG infrastructure and strengthening regional energy cooperation.
These measures are designed not only to respond to a crisis, but to prevent one.
Analysis: A transition under pressure
Europe’s long-term strategy is clear — reduce dependence on external energy sources and accelerate the transition to cleaner alternatives. However, this transition is happening under pressure. Balancing affordability, security, and sustainability remains a complex challenge.
The next energy crisis, if it comes, will test whether Europe has learned enough from the past. For now, there is no immediate emergency. But the signals are there. Europe is not reacting to a crisis — it is preparing for one. And in an increasingly uncertain global environment, preparation may be the only real advantage.
